■ Murli Deora is in charge of petroleum ministry for the second term under the leadership of the new UPA government without the Left is actively considering deregulation of auto fuel prices. This if approved by the cabinet would be shot in the arm for the oil marketing companies and provide relief to the government reeling under huge fiscal deficit of 6%.
■ The subsidy burden for the government to keep the oil prices under check is around 1.3% of GDP. Deregulation of the auto fuel prices till the time crude is below a threshold level would help to reduce the subsidy burden for the government and thus impacting the fiscal deficit positively.
■ In April 2002, the APM system was discontinued and a degree of autonomy extended to the oil marketing companies to set prices based on internatinally quoted prices of petroleum products. Between 2002 and 2004, the world prices of crude petroleum had risen by 26% to 32% and prices of HSD and MS by between 19% and 41%. So the government again started implementing APM.
■ The government has opened discussions on possibility of deregulation of auto fuel prices. This government had appointed Chaturvedi Committee for implementing reforms in the oil & gas sector in India.
To see full report: FUEL PRICE DECONTROL
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воскресенье, 7 июня 2009 г.
пятница, 5 июня 2009 г.
>INFOGRAM (ANAGRAM)
Gains are capped!!!!
DIVESTMENT BACK IN RECKONING
The newly elected Government is planning to revive the divestment process. Many divestment stocks are rising rapidly on bourses. Instead of selling majority holdings or completely privatizing, the current thinking is to sell small amount of stocks.
Government is thinking with a short term goal of gamering resources but will not fundamentally change the picture. Neither ownership or management of these companies will change in any major way. If government were to privatize them that will infuse fresh managerial talent and new ideas to make these resources much more profitable. If they sell in large chunk, the price they will receieve will be substantially higher than what they will get for a small stake sells.
RISE IN MARKETS: TOO FAST TOO SOON.
In less than three months time. almost half of the BSE 500 stocks have returned more than 50% to its holders. 21% have risen more than 75% and almost 10% stocks have risen more than 100% from its recent lows in March.
99% of the stocks listed on BSE exchange are above 50 day moving average. 95% of the stocks are 200 day moving average. The kind of bullishness is difficult to sustain in such economically challenging times.
India's market capitalization has risen more than 75% in a short span of three months.
Our Market cap to GDP ratio has gone up by more than 66% during time and now reaching fair value level of 1.
This suggest stocks have risen quite rapidly. Now, in order to sustain such rapid moves in the markets, the fundamentals have to turn and improve drastically in next 6 months. If economic data does not improve to that extend, we may be setting ourselves for a negative surprises.
This led us to believe that gains from here are going to be capped at best. Investors will do follow trailing stop loss methodology to protect their precious gains.
BUY GOLD AS AN INSURANCE
It's always been easy to participate in the gold market and there are three options available in India. First, buying physical gold coins, bars and jewellery and store it somewhere safe. Secondly, to trade futures gold on Commodity Exchange. And thirdly buying a Gold ETF on NSE.
All the ingredients are in place for a big run in gold.
To see full report: INFORGRAM
воскресенье, 31 мая 2009 г.
>ROLLOVER ANALYSIS MAY 09 (ANAGRAM)
NIFTY UP 25% IN MAY SERIES; HIGHEST GAIN EVER IN ANY SERIES.
Nifty surged 25% in May series, the highest ever gain witnessed in any series in the history of derivative market in India. Before this, the highest gain was witnessed way back in Oct 2007, where nifty rose by 13%. Nifty continued its upward journey during the entire series without any significant correction and finally closed the series at the highest level on a closing basis at 4337. This gain of 25% came on the back of a rise of 12,7% witnessed in the April series,
OVERALL ROLLOVER - 77% IN LINE WITH LAST THREE MONTHS AVERAGE ROLLOVER OF 76%
Rollover for the May series STOOD AT 77%, the same as that of April series. This is also in line with the last three months' average rollover of 76%. Although in percentage terms rollover is same, in absolute terms picture is different. We are starting the June series with a higher OI of 111Cr shares as against 106 Cr shares with which we had started May series.
LOWER ROLLOVER IN NIFTY(63%) - LOWEST SINCE OCTOBER'08
In case of Nifty, lower rollover is seen, where only 63% positions got rolled over to June series as against 74% last month and last six months' average rollover of 70%. Even in terms of no. of shares, we are starting June series with Nifty futures OI of only 2.75 Cr shares (Lower by 27%) as against 3.76Cr last month and last three month average OI of 3.47 Cr shares at the beginning on new series.
OUTLOOK FOR THE JUNE SERIES - BE BEARISH ONLY BELOW 4200 LEVEL ON CLOSING BASIS
BOOK PROFIT IN NIFTY AROUND 4500-4600 LEVEL
In a nutshell, considering aggresive put writing at 4200 and 4300 level, long rollover in stock future suggested by the higher COC and FIIs investment in cash market we believe there is a higher possibility of upward momentum to continue for the first couple of week in the new series. There fore our advice would be to remain bullish till 4200 level gets broken on the downside, the level at which we have seen aggressive put writing.
This report includes data on following stocks:
To see full report: ROLLOVER ANALYSIS
Nifty surged 25% in May series, the highest ever gain witnessed in any series in the history of derivative market in India. Before this, the highest gain was witnessed way back in Oct 2007, where nifty rose by 13%. Nifty continued its upward journey during the entire series without any significant correction and finally closed the series at the highest level on a closing basis at 4337. This gain of 25% came on the back of a rise of 12,7% witnessed in the April series,
OVERALL ROLLOVER - 77% IN LINE WITH LAST THREE MONTHS AVERAGE ROLLOVER OF 76%
Rollover for the May series STOOD AT 77%, the same as that of April series. This is also in line with the last three months' average rollover of 76%. Although in percentage terms rollover is same, in absolute terms picture is different. We are starting the June series with a higher OI of 111Cr shares as against 106 Cr shares with which we had started May series.
LOWER ROLLOVER IN NIFTY(63%) - LOWEST SINCE OCTOBER'08
In case of Nifty, lower rollover is seen, where only 63% positions got rolled over to June series as against 74% last month and last six months' average rollover of 70%. Even in terms of no. of shares, we are starting June series with Nifty futures OI of only 2.75 Cr shares (Lower by 27%) as against 3.76Cr last month and last three month average OI of 3.47 Cr shares at the beginning on new series.
OUTLOOK FOR THE JUNE SERIES - BE BEARISH ONLY BELOW 4200 LEVEL ON CLOSING BASIS
BOOK PROFIT IN NIFTY AROUND 4500-4600 LEVEL
In a nutshell, considering aggresive put writing at 4200 and 4300 level, long rollover in stock future suggested by the higher COC and FIIs investment in cash market we believe there is a higher possibility of upward momentum to continue for the first couple of week in the new series. There fore our advice would be to remain bullish till 4200 level gets broken on the downside, the level at which we have seen aggressive put writing.
This report includes data on following stocks:
- HIGHEST ROLLOVER STOCKS
- LOWEST ROLLOVER STOCKS
- PERFORMANCE OF THE MAY SERIES
- F&O (STOCKS+INDICES) ROLLOVER DETAILS
To see full report: ROLLOVER ANALYSIS
WEEKLY WATCH (ANAGRAM)
UNLUCKY 13?
Indian markets had a dream run for the past 12 consecutive weeks. India was amongst top gainers in the world indices and the move was fairly broad based. Realty and metal stocks continue to sizzle on the street. India's market capitalization has increased by a massive 70% or 9 lakh crore in just 12 weeks time. Momentum indicators are still showing strength. It is natural for a prudent financial investor to remain cautious and keep one foot on the door.
To see full report: WEEKLY WATCH
LARSEN & TOUBRO LIMITED (ANAGRAM)
REVENUE & PROFITABILITY RISE LED BY EFFICIENT EXECUTION OF LARGE PROJECTS.
During FY09, company reported a revenue of Rs. 40187 crore as against Rs.29198 Crore and Net Profit increase by 63% to Rs 3756 crore (incl extraordinary income)
Core EBIDTA margin stood at 11.6% V/s 11.8. Adj. NPM stood at 9.35% v/s 7.88% due to institutionalized risk management processes, efficient cost management and speedy execution.
SEGMENTAL PERFORMANCES
ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION (E&C) SEGMENT
Bucking the current industry down turn:- The core infrastructure and industrial sectors have attracted sizeable investment in the recemt times, driven by sound fiscal and economic policies of the government. The E&C segment reported a significant growth in its Order Inflows during FY09 at Rs 45418 crore, a growth of 28% on YoY basis. Share of internatinal order stood at 14.5% of the segment order inflow.
Electrical & Electronics Segment:- Electrical & Electronics segment reported a muted growth in its sales. The segment reported revenues at Rs 2778 crore for the year, a growth of 4% compared to the previous year. Revenue growth was impacted by slowdown & industrial segment. EBIDTA Margin took a cut & was down at 13.3% v/s 16.9%, lower by 360 bps.
Machinery & Industrial Products Segment:- Overall slow down in Industrial & real estate sector in H209 has adversely revenue and profitability were muted during the year. The segment posted Net revenues of Rs.2397 crore, registering a growth of 3%. EBIDTA margin increase to 20% v/s 18.9%, increase by 110 bps. Improvement in margin due to rupee depreciation.
To see full report: LARSEN & TOUBRO
During FY09, company reported a revenue of Rs. 40187 crore as against Rs.29198 Crore and Net Profit increase by 63% to Rs 3756 crore (incl extraordinary income)
Core EBIDTA margin stood at 11.6% V/s 11.8. Adj. NPM stood at 9.35% v/s 7.88% due to institutionalized risk management processes, efficient cost management and speedy execution.
SEGMENTAL PERFORMANCES
ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION (E&C) SEGMENT
Bucking the current industry down turn:- The core infrastructure and industrial sectors have attracted sizeable investment in the recemt times, driven by sound fiscal and economic policies of the government. The E&C segment reported a significant growth in its Order Inflows during FY09 at Rs 45418 crore, a growth of 28% on YoY basis. Share of internatinal order stood at 14.5% of the segment order inflow.
Electrical & Electronics Segment:- Electrical & Electronics segment reported a muted growth in its sales. The segment reported revenues at Rs 2778 crore for the year, a growth of 4% compared to the previous year. Revenue growth was impacted by slowdown & industrial segment. EBIDTA Margin took a cut & was down at 13.3% v/s 16.9%, lower by 360 bps.
Machinery & Industrial Products Segment:- Overall slow down in Industrial & real estate sector in H209 has adversely revenue and profitability were muted during the year. The segment posted Net revenues of Rs.2397 crore, registering a growth of 3%. EBIDTA margin increase to 20% v/s 18.9%, increase by 110 bps. Improvement in margin due to rupee depreciation.
To see full report: LARSEN & TOUBRO
четверг, 28 мая 2009 г.
>CEMENT SECTOR (ANAGRAM)
COMPANY DESCRIPTION
India Cements is the third largest cement group in India with a capacity of 10.1mmt spread across seven manufacturing plants in the states of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. Its cements are sold in south India under the Sanskar, Coromandel and Rassi brands, whcih have strong brand equity in that market.
The Company has revived its Shipping business with the purchase of two ships(Dry bulk carriers) with a total capapcity of 79843 DWT which will be primarily utilized for captive movement of coal and other rae materials also to partake in the upswing in the shipping industry.
INDUSTRY SCENARIO
DEMAND-SUPPLY SCENARIO
The overall outlook for the back of robust demand from housing construction, phase-2 of NHDP and other infrastructure development projects. Domestic demand for the cement has been increasing at a fast pace in India.
The cement sector is expected to witness growth in line with economic grwoth because of strong co-relation with GDP.
The industry had installed capacity of 212mn tonnes in last financial year, while consumption was 176mn tonnes. Cement companies have added nearly 7mn tonnes capacity in April, taking the total installed level to 219mn tonnes. According to the Cement Manufactrurers' Association, the UltraTech/Grasim combine led the way with 4.5mn tonnes, followed by Damia Cements with 2mn tonnes of cement capacity is scheduled to come on stream by the end of FY10.
To see full report: CEMENT SECTOR
India Cements is the third largest cement group in India with a capacity of 10.1mmt spread across seven manufacturing plants in the states of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. Its cements are sold in south India under the Sanskar, Coromandel and Rassi brands, whcih have strong brand equity in that market.
The Company has revived its Shipping business with the purchase of two ships(Dry bulk carriers) with a total capapcity of 79843 DWT which will be primarily utilized for captive movement of coal and other rae materials also to partake in the upswing in the shipping industry.
INDUSTRY SCENARIO
DEMAND-SUPPLY SCENARIO
The overall outlook for the back of robust demand from housing construction, phase-2 of NHDP and other infrastructure development projects. Domestic demand for the cement has been increasing at a fast pace in India.
The cement sector is expected to witness growth in line with economic grwoth because of strong co-relation with GDP.
The industry had installed capacity of 212mn tonnes in last financial year, while consumption was 176mn tonnes. Cement companies have added nearly 7mn tonnes capacity in April, taking the total installed level to 219mn tonnes. According to the Cement Manufactrurers' Association, the UltraTech/Grasim combine led the way with 4.5mn tonnes, followed by Damia Cements with 2mn tonnes of cement capacity is scheduled to come on stream by the end of FY10.
To see full report: CEMENT SECTOR
>ESSAR OIL LIMITED (ANAGRAM)
MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS
■ Firm arrangements with HPCL, BPCL & IOC for product off-take of 7 million tonnes and infrastructure support from these companies provide a strong foothold in the domestic market.
■ Retail outlet reactivation started from Q#FY09. Retail sales for the quarter January to March 2009 stood at 264,421 KL, a 253% jump over the Q3 sales of 74998 KL.
Outlook and Valuation
Going ahead, the performance of the stock will be greatly leveraged to progress on refinery expansion, refining margins & news flow on E&P business. Based on the assumption of crude oil prices at the levels of USD 50/ barrel for FY10E and USD 55/ barrel in FY11E from the current level, the stock is trading at a forward P/E of 19.36xFY10E and an EPS of Rs.9.2xFY10E.Based on the above mentioned assumptions the target price is Rs.167 (18 P/E + E&P).
To see full report: ESSAR OIL
■ Firm arrangements with HPCL, BPCL & IOC for product off-take of 7 million tonnes and infrastructure support from these companies provide a strong foothold in the domestic market.
■ Retail outlet reactivation started from Q#FY09. Retail sales for the quarter January to March 2009 stood at 264,421 KL, a 253% jump over the Q3 sales of 74998 KL.
Outlook and Valuation
Going ahead, the performance of the stock will be greatly leveraged to progress on refinery expansion, refining margins & news flow on E&P business. Based on the assumption of crude oil prices at the levels of USD 50/ barrel for FY10E and USD 55/ barrel in FY11E from the current level, the stock is trading at a forward P/E of 19.36xFY10E and an EPS of Rs.9.2xFY10E.Based on the above mentioned assumptions the target price is Rs.167 (18 P/E + E&P).
To see full report: ESSAR OIL
суббота, 23 мая 2009 г.
>EQUITY WEEKLY WATCH (ANAGRAM)
What a week!
New UPA government has heralded good times for India bourses. Nifty gained highest ever in a week and for its elder brother Sensex it was a best since March 1992. Reality and capital goods stocks recorded massive 37% and 28% gains while underperformed the broader indices. Foreign institutional investors poured in 5000 cr. this week chasing stock prices, while domestic funds booked profits worth Rs.1300 cr.
Markets are attracting lot of interests from retail investors and we expect indices to remain buoyant as well. Midcap and small caps are hogging the limelight and as we have been asking our readers to put their money in this space as it will generate much superior returns in the short term.
■ WEEKLY NEWS
■ WEEKLY EVENTS
■ WEEKLY TRENDS
■DERIVATIVE WEEKLY SUMMARY
■ TECHNICAL TALK
■ WEEKLY SUPPORT RESISTANCE
■ FUNDAMENTAL CHECK
To see full report: WEEKLY WATCH
New UPA government has heralded good times for India bourses. Nifty gained highest ever in a week and for its elder brother Sensex it was a best since March 1992. Reality and capital goods stocks recorded massive 37% and 28% gains while underperformed the broader indices. Foreign institutional investors poured in 5000 cr. this week chasing stock prices, while domestic funds booked profits worth Rs.1300 cr.
Markets are attracting lot of interests from retail investors and we expect indices to remain buoyant as well. Midcap and small caps are hogging the limelight and as we have been asking our readers to put their money in this space as it will generate much superior returns in the short term.
INDEX
■ WEEKLY NEWS
■ WEEKLY EVENTS
■ WEEKLY TRENDS
- MARKET INDICATORS,
- SECTORAL INDICES,
- WEEKLY SENSEX GAINERS & LOSERS,
- ADVANCE-DECLINES,
- WORLD INDICES
■DERIVATIVE WEEKLY SUMMARY
- OVERALL INTEREST IS HIGHEST SINCE JAN 08, FRIDAY'S DATA: PUTS ADD HUGE OPEN INTEREST,
- OUTLOOK: BE BULLISH ONLY ABOVE 4300-4350 LEVEL ON CLOSING BASIS
- SECTORWISE WEEKLY CHANGE IN OI,
- TOP STOCKS OPEN INTEREST WISE,
- FII ACTIVITY FOR THE WEEK (From 18th May to 22nd May'09)
- TOP GAINERS & LOSERS OPEN INTEREST WISE
- TOP GAINERS & LOSERS PRICE WISE
■ TECHNICAL TALK
- EXPECT MARKET TO BE IN THE RANGE COUPLED WITH A STOCK SPECIFIC BULLISH MOMENTUM
- TECHNICAL PICKS FOR THE FORTHCOMING WEEK, REVIEW OF STOCKS RECOMMENDED LAST WEEK WITH REVISED ENTRY LEVELS & SL
■ WEEKLY SUPPORT RESISTANCE
- SUPPORT - RESISTANCE LEVELS OF VARIOUS STOCKS FOR FORTHCOMING WEEK
■ FUNDAMENTAL CHECK
- REVIEW OF STOCKS COVERED 3 MONTHS BACK
To see full report: WEEKLY WATCH
пятница, 15 мая 2009 г.
>HINDUSTAN CONSTRUCTION COMPANY LTD (ANAGRAM)
RESULT HIGHLIGHTS
Hindustan Construction reported lower than estimated revenue of Rs 979.7 Cr (-7% yoy) as a few if its projects failed to reach the minimum threshold limit. The (adj) net profit however, was higher 7% partly owing to 300 bps improvement in operating margins to 15.4% for the quarter.
The FX reversal of losses provided earlier in the year and SAP implementation advisory fee has resulted in other income surging to Rs 24 Cr which in turned boosted reported profit by 94.5%. We have treated reversal of FX losses of Rs 19.33 Cras extraordinary item.
HCC booked orders worth Rs 5200 Cr during Q4FY09 taking the total order book to Rs 16400 Cr.
FINANCIALS
Due to change in its accounting policy for treating gains and losses on FX borrowings for working capital, the company has reserved Rs 29 Cr of net FX loss in Q4FY09. The reversed amount has been credited to 'Foreign Currency Monetary Items Translation Difference Account' and will be amortised over 3 years. For Q4FY09, Rs 9.67 has been amortised for the same. We have treated FX loss reversal as a non-recurring item whereas the amortisation of the same has been considered as recurring item.The revenue growth (YoY) which had been decreasing for last 4 quarters finally slipped below zero - marking de-growth. Apart from the general slow down in execution, the de-growth in revenue was also due to failure of some projects to reach the threshold limit of revenue recognition. The bottom line however, witnessed a 7% rise yoy partly due to higher operating margins at 15.38% (+296 bps yoy)
HCC added orders worth Rs 5002 Cr in the Q4FY09 taking the total unexecuted orders to Rs 16400 Cr. The company is L1 for Rs 1000 Cr worth of projects and is currently evaluating projects worth Rs 10,000 Cr.
To see full report: HCC
среда, 13 мая 2009 г.
>BANKING SECTOR REVIEW (ANAGRAM)
Banks reported a robust yearly growth in Q4FY09, though sequentially situation worsened,
Slowdown in the lending activities from the last two quarters coupled with lower interest rate scenario translated in to a negative growth in Net Interest Income in most of the banks quarterly basis. Moreover, hit of asset quality could be very clearly seen in gross NPA figures. We are Bearish on Banking Sector due to the following major concerns.
PRESSURE ON NET INTEREST INCOME
The cautious strategy adopted by most of the banks discouraged lending activites, putting pressure on the interest income and the margins. Lower interest income, while on the other side continued flow of deposits kept the interest expenses on a high end. As a result of which most of the banks registered degrowth in net interest income on sequential basis, consequently drop in the margins.
WORRY ON ASSET QUALITY
Banks had hard hit on their asset quality following the ongoing financial slowdown and that is the reason of choosing the safe avenues for the fund deployment by the banks instead of providing credit to the productive sectors. To deal with it, RBI came out with the circular of restructuring without changing its investment grade.
INADEQUATELY PROVIDED FOR NPAs
Provision coverage ratio provides the cushion for the corrosion in the asset quality. Presently where all banks prefer capital conversation and risk management over growth, those who have adequately provided for the NPAs are on a safer side. In FY 2008-09 instead of providing more amount for the same, some of the banks lowered their provisions and thus showed positive sum of growth in Net Profit.
To see full report: BANKING SECTOR REVIEW
Slowdown in the lending activities from the last two quarters coupled with lower interest rate scenario translated in to a negative growth in Net Interest Income in most of the banks quarterly basis. Moreover, hit of asset quality could be very clearly seen in gross NPA figures. We are Bearish on Banking Sector due to the following major concerns.
- Adverse effect of downturn in core business in Net Interest Income
- Hit on asset quality following the economic downturn
- Inadequate cover for NPAs
- Stress on demand Deposit
- Banks still in a diverse track of business
PRESSURE ON NET INTEREST INCOME
The cautious strategy adopted by most of the banks discouraged lending activites, putting pressure on the interest income and the margins. Lower interest income, while on the other side continued flow of deposits kept the interest expenses on a high end. As a result of which most of the banks registered degrowth in net interest income on sequential basis, consequently drop in the margins.
WORRY ON ASSET QUALITY
Banks had hard hit on their asset quality following the ongoing financial slowdown and that is the reason of choosing the safe avenues for the fund deployment by the banks instead of providing credit to the productive sectors. To deal with it, RBI came out with the circular of restructuring without changing its investment grade.
INADEQUATELY PROVIDED FOR NPAs
Provision coverage ratio provides the cushion for the corrosion in the asset quality. Presently where all banks prefer capital conversation and risk management over growth, those who have adequately provided for the NPAs are on a safer side. In FY 2008-09 instead of providing more amount for the same, some of the banks lowered their provisions and thus showed positive sum of growth in Net Profit.
To see full report: BANKING SECTOR REVIEW
четверг, 7 мая 2009 г.
>Infogram (ANAGRAM)
Will Momentum last?
Our bellowed Sensex had one of the best months in last ten years. After May of 1999, first time we saw sensex rising for than 17% in a month. Last month is this report we advised our reports to buy stocks as we foresaw good times. How do we judge the weather now? Well, slightly overcast to say in brief. There are many events scheduled over a month which can derail our rally and the advice is to remain indoors or carry an umbrella (strict stop loss) when you dare to venture out!
In the US, there is a market maxim, 'Sell in May and go away'. The idea is to sell in the month of May and enter after Halloween in November. The saying is based on some studies that show that returns during the November-April period are better than the May-October period.
We scanned the data in India from October 1989 onwards to find whether the rule applies to us as well. We found that while the April October returns in the last 19 years were 9.38% on an average. The returns were positive in 12(63%) out of the last 19 years. The returns in the October to April returns were 12,57% in the last 20 years. The returns were positive in 15 (75%) of the last 20 years under study.
The month of May is notoriously bad for equities. In the last 19 years, it has given a negative return of 0.97%. This is the second worst month after October, which has an average loss of 2.81%. In the last 19 years, the month of May has returned losses in 9 out of 19 instances. Besides, the month of May has some other idiosyncrasies as well.
To see full report: INFOGRAM
Our bellowed Sensex had one of the best months in last ten years. After May of 1999, first time we saw sensex rising for than 17% in a month. Last month is this report we advised our reports to buy stocks as we foresaw good times. How do we judge the weather now? Well, slightly overcast to say in brief. There are many events scheduled over a month which can derail our rally and the advice is to remain indoors or carry an umbrella (strict stop loss) when you dare to venture out!
In the US, there is a market maxim, 'Sell in May and go away'. The idea is to sell in the month of May and enter after Halloween in November. The saying is based on some studies that show that returns during the November-April period are better than the May-October period.
We scanned the data in India from October 1989 onwards to find whether the rule applies to us as well. We found that while the April October returns in the last 19 years were 9.38% on an average. The returns were positive in 12(63%) out of the last 19 years. The returns in the October to April returns were 12,57% in the last 20 years. The returns were positive in 15 (75%) of the last 20 years under study.
The month of May is notoriously bad for equities. In the last 19 years, it has given a negative return of 0.97%. This is the second worst month after October, which has an average loss of 2.81%. In the last 19 years, the month of May has returned losses in 9 out of 19 instances. Besides, the month of May has some other idiosyncrasies as well.
To see full report: INFOGRAM
суббота, 2 мая 2009 г.
>Equity Weekly Watch (ANAGRAM)
Stress Test for the Bulls ahead
Markets consolidated previous week of gains in this holiday shortened week. The ensuing week is the penultimate week before the last phases of general elections and subsequent results. In the US, government will announce Banking stress test results by Thursday, and tell us what we already know that US banking system is in dire straits.
Domestically, many corporate earnings results were announced in the past two weeks, and most have met expectation save for the real estate sector. DLF has announced horrid quarterly results and the sector is going to receive some stick this week.
Markets are showing strong signs of momentum; by the ensuing week many events are scheduled to put the bulls resolve to test.
ECONOMY NEWS
Inflation edged up to a seven-week high of 0.56% for the week to April 18, defying expectations of a drop towards zero, with data once again highlighting the persistent problem of stubbornly high food prices amid rigidities in the farm sector. Overall food price inflation, which includes these items and more, rose to 7.39% for the week to April 18 from 6.85% the week before, but off the 10-year high of 11.63 seen in early January.
To see full report: WEEKLY WATCH
Markets consolidated previous week of gains in this holiday shortened week. The ensuing week is the penultimate week before the last phases of general elections and subsequent results. In the US, government will announce Banking stress test results by Thursday, and tell us what we already know that US banking system is in dire straits.
Domestically, many corporate earnings results were announced in the past two weeks, and most have met expectation save for the real estate sector. DLF has announced horrid quarterly results and the sector is going to receive some stick this week.
Markets are showing strong signs of momentum; by the ensuing week many events are scheduled to put the bulls resolve to test.
ECONOMY NEWS
Inflation edged up to a seven-week high of 0.56% for the week to April 18, defying expectations of a drop towards zero, with data once again highlighting the persistent problem of stubbornly high food prices amid rigidities in the farm sector. Overall food price inflation, which includes these items and more, rose to 7.39% for the week to April 18 from 6.85% the week before, but off the 10-year high of 11.63 seen in early January.
To see full report: WEEKLY WATCH
воскресенье, 26 апреля 2009 г.
>Prism Cement Ltd. (ANAGRAM)
EARNING REVIEW
RESULT HIGHLIGHTS
Prism cement reported a rise of 9.22% YoY in sales to Rs 249.74Cr due to higher cement prices whereas Operating Profit went down marginally by 1.85% from Rs88.34Cr to 86.71 Cr on account of higher selling and administrative cost. Tax rate for the quarter was higher at 40% while the adjusted PAT witnessed a decline of 22.02% YoY to Rs50.19 Cr.
Cement and clinker sales volume increased marginally at 0.84mn tonnes from 0.83 tonnes in the previous corresponding quarter. Sales were better than the previous corresponding quarter due to rise in net realizations.
Total cost was up by 16.18% YoY, resulting into fall of 1.85% YoY in EBITDA margin. The overall Selling and administrative cost was up by 21% YoY and employee cost was also up by 14.84% YoY, putting additional pressure on profitability of operations. Tax rate for the quarter was higher at 40% while the adjusted PAT witnessed a decline of 22.02% YoY to Rs50.19Cr. But EBITDA margins improved compared to last quarter due to decline in the prices of the international coal.
RECOMMENDATIONS
We believe, Prism is at comparable advantage against peers given its close to zero Debt/Equity ratio, as well as it looks fairly valued on EV/tonne basis.
At the current price, Prism cement trades at 5.12 times its TTM earning of Rs 5.27 and EV/EBITDA of 2.93 times its TTM EBITDA of Rs 269.09 Cr. With the softening of international coal and coke prices, cost pressure for the cement companies has eased out. Also, most of the companies have consumed their high cost coal inventories. Thus we expect that during the coming quarters cement companies will show improvement in profits. We maintain our outperform rating on the stock.
To see full report: PRISM CEMENT
>Credit Policy (ANAGRAM)
ANNUAL CREDIT POLICY 2009-10
In the context of exceptionally challenging circumstances in the global economy, Reserve Bank of India on 21st April 2009 announced Annual Policy Statement for 200-10 of which the keypoints are as follows.
■ Repo rate cut by 25 bps at 4.75% with immediate effect
■ Reverse Repo rate cut by 25 bps at 3.25% with immediate effect
■ CRR remained unchanged at 5.0%
■ Extension of special refinance facility and 14-day repo facility till March 2010.
■ Extension in the RCB relaxation for all in cost limit to December.
■ Change in the Structure of pricing of Floating Rate Bonds (FRB)
■ Increase in total amount of FCCB Buyback from US$ 50 million to US$ 100 million
■ Rescheduled 12% CAR implementation for NBFCs to Mar 31 2010 and 15% to Mar 31 2011
■ Hike in the limit of loans to NRI against deposit to Rs 10 million from Rs 2 million
■ GDP groth for FY10 projected at 6.0%
■ WPI inflation for Fy10 projected at 4.0%
■ Deposit growth for Fy10 projected at 18%
■ Non food credit growth for FY10 projected at 20.0%
■ Money supply growth for FY10 projected at 17.0%
To see full report: CREDIT POLICY
вторник, 21 апреля 2009 г.
>What’s Happening? (ANAGRAM)]
AGENDA
• What’s Happening in the Markets.
• What’s Happening in the World
• What has improved?
• What’s Next ?
• What’s the outlook ?
To see full report:WHAT’S HAPPENING
• What’s Happening in the Markets.
• What’s Happening in the World
• What has improved?
• What’s Next ?
• What’s the outlook ?
To see full report:WHAT’S HAPPENING
среда, 15 апреля 2009 г.
>Equtiy Weekly Watch (ANAGRAM)
INFOSYS TO GUIDE THE MARKETS
From next week hectic preparations for India’s 15TH General Elections will start with full earnest. Ensuing week will also mark the beginning of whole host of important quarterly results starting with Infosys Technologies on 15th April. We are concerned regarding the clients delaying outsourcing projects and the increased risk of pricing pressures on I.T. companies. On the top of the woes on business front, we are expecting turbulence on account of currencies also. Fundamentals of Rupee suggest it is likely to appreciate in medium term. We advise investors should caution on the IT front.
Elsewhere in Asia, Minutes of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting in March. showed that members of the board shared a view that "economic conditions had deteriorated significantly and were likely to continue deteriorating for the time being".
To see full report: WEEKLY WATCH
From next week hectic preparations for India’s 15TH General Elections will start with full earnest. Ensuing week will also mark the beginning of whole host of important quarterly results starting with Infosys Technologies on 15th April. We are concerned regarding the clients delaying outsourcing projects and the increased risk of pricing pressures on I.T. companies. On the top of the woes on business front, we are expecting turbulence on account of currencies also. Fundamentals of Rupee suggest it is likely to appreciate in medium term. We advise investors should caution on the IT front.
Elsewhere in Asia, Minutes of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting in March. showed that members of the board shared a view that "economic conditions had deteriorated significantly and were likely to continue deteriorating for the time being".
To see full report: WEEKLY WATCH
>Recommendations Review (ANAGRAM)
- ABG Shipyard
- Foursoft
- GSFC
- GSPL
- Seamec
- Suzlon
To see full report: RECOMMENDATIONS REVIEW
воскресенье, 5 апреля 2009 г.
>Infogram (ANAGRAM)
THINGS ARE LOOKING BETTER
Though we are not out of the woods, Things are decidedly looking better.The Nifty broke through the resistance at 3050 to close to post a monthly high of 3123.This is highest closing registered by the Nifty in the past two months. This rally has seen Nifty putting on 28%,a mark that cant be just frittered away.
We had seen a large rally in October- November 2008,When the Nifty jumped 28.15%.It zoomed 2525 to 3240 I n just 7 sessions. with both bottom & top days being counted. The current rally is slow by those standards, taking 14 sessions, double the time, to cover 3/4th of the distance. This rise & consolidation augurs well for the markets.
There is a change in the market sentiment for the better, Retail investors are tip toeing back in the markets & the domestic fund managers have begin to put their cash to work. After being net sellers for January and February, they have pumped Rs. 850 Cr in the month of March. The FIIs too have bought stock worth Rs. 687 Cr.
In the ensuing quarterly season we likely to see better numbers on a QoQ basis form the auto, cement & metal sectors.
To see full report: INFOGRAM
суббота, 28 марта 2009 г.
>SEAMEC LIMITED (ANAGRAM)
BACKGROUND
Established in 1996 as Peerless Shpping and Oilfields, South East Asia Marine Engineering & Construction Limited caters to the offshore oilfield industry and provides Diving Support Vessel (DSV) based diving services. Mauritius based Coflexip Stena offshore oilfield industry and provides Diving Support Vessel (DSV) based diving services. Mauritius based Coflexip Stena offshore had acquired 58.24% stake in the erstwhile. Peerless Shipping in 1999, which in-turn was acquired by Technship S. A. of France in April 2000. Pursuant to this Technship made an open offer to the shareholders of SEAMEC in December 2002 taking its shareholding from 58.24% to 78.25%.
BUSINESS
Being a leading provider of DSV based diving services, SEAMEC has unrivalled experience in the ongaoing subsea inspection, repair maintenance and light construction required for the support of offshore oil production.
Currently the company owns three multi functional diving support vessels is capable of working throughout the year in severe sea and weather conditions. Multi-support vessels are normally used for supporting oil fuel services, diving, remote vehicle operations, fire fighting, rescue and helicopter services. Most of the time dedicated dive support vessels are used for diving and sometimes for ROV service (Remote Operated Vehicles), which are under water remotely controlled vehicles.
The company has also acquired a cale lay vessel in june 2006 named Seamec Princess. After modification, the vessel was put on charter from 1st March 2008.
To see full report: SEAMEC
Established in 1996 as Peerless Shpping and Oilfields, South East Asia Marine Engineering & Construction Limited caters to the offshore oilfield industry and provides Diving Support Vessel (DSV) based diving services. Mauritius based Coflexip Stena offshore oilfield industry and provides Diving Support Vessel (DSV) based diving services. Mauritius based Coflexip Stena offshore had acquired 58.24% stake in the erstwhile. Peerless Shipping in 1999, which in-turn was acquired by Technship S. A. of France in April 2000. Pursuant to this Technship made an open offer to the shareholders of SEAMEC in December 2002 taking its shareholding from 58.24% to 78.25%.
BUSINESS
Being a leading provider of DSV based diving services, SEAMEC has unrivalled experience in the ongaoing subsea inspection, repair maintenance and light construction required for the support of offshore oil production.
Currently the company owns three multi functional diving support vessels is capable of working throughout the year in severe sea and weather conditions. Multi-support vessels are normally used for supporting oil fuel services, diving, remote vehicle operations, fire fighting, rescue and helicopter services. Most of the time dedicated dive support vessels are used for diving and sometimes for ROV service (Remote Operated Vehicles), which are under water remotely controlled vehicles.
The company has also acquired a cale lay vessel in june 2006 named Seamec Princess. After modification, the vessel was put on charter from 1st March 2008.
To see full report: SEAMEC
воскресенье, 22 марта 2009 г.
>Equity Weekly Watch (ANAGRAM)
After the week ended December 19, 2008, this was the first instance when the Nifty produced two back rallies on a weekly closing basis. The 3.23% rise in the Nifty and 2.40% hike in the Sensex, effectively hides the enthusiasm on the street which saw the BSE Small cap Index rising 6.15% during the week.
Around a 1000 stocks rose more than 10% and 246 rose more than 20% during the week, the BSE Small Cap rose more than 7.2% during the course of the week from the previous weekly closing. The percentages mentioned are for the best gains during the week and are not closing gains.
The gymnastics of the small cap stocks not withstanding, the Nifty was unable to close above the 2830 mark. Though the popular index did cross the 2830 mark on an intraday basis on Wednesday,it's subsequents rallies had lower tops. So both on the daily and the weekly charts the 2830 mark has stood like a rock fending off any attacks on its territory.
Meanwhile, let's not forget that our rally was essentially manufactured in the US. And the Dow too was under similar situation, unable to close above the 7500 mark. The rally, which was led by short covering in the banks, showed signd of sputtering.
To see full report: WEEKLY WATCH 210309
Around a 1000 stocks rose more than 10% and 246 rose more than 20% during the week, the BSE Small Cap rose more than 7.2% during the course of the week from the previous weekly closing. The percentages mentioned are for the best gains during the week and are not closing gains.
The gymnastics of the small cap stocks not withstanding, the Nifty was unable to close above the 2830 mark. Though the popular index did cross the 2830 mark on an intraday basis on Wednesday,it's subsequents rallies had lower tops. So both on the daily and the weekly charts the 2830 mark has stood like a rock fending off any attacks on its territory.
Meanwhile, let's not forget that our rally was essentially manufactured in the US. And the Dow too was under similar situation, unable to close above the 7500 mark. The rally, which was led by short covering in the banks, showed signd of sputtering.
To see full report: WEEKLY WATCH 210309
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