Hindustan Dorr Oliver Ltd’s (HDOL) Q4FY09 results were in line with our expectations. Its revenues grew 77.8% YoY to ~Rs1.9bn backed by robust execution across mineral beneficiation segment. OPM for the period dipped by 595bps YoY to 8.4% owing to higher cost of raw materials at ~83% of net sales. Despite an other income of Rs13mn, net profits fell by 9.3% YoY to Rs87mn.
■ Fresh order inflows at ~Rs4.7bn: HDOL bagged couple of new orders in Q4FY09, taking the total order inflows in FY09 to Rs9.6bn. The major order bagged during the quarter is worth Rs4.4bn involving commissioning of a greenfield Ore mining & processing facility of 3,000 MTPD at Tumalapalle in Andhra Pradesh on LSTK basis. The process plant, adopting Alkali Pressure Leaching process will be executed in technical collaboration with Bateman, South Africa & is
slated to be completed in 22 months.
■ Strong Order book at Rs13.1bn: HDOL maintains a healthy order backlog of 1.9x FY10E revenues. The company has already bagged orders amounting to Rs905mn till date in FY10. While metal & mineral beneficiation accounts for ~67% of the total order backlog, environmental management & manufacturing orders score 25% & 5.4% respectively. ~50% of orders in the present backlog emanate from various governmental agencies & are fixed price in nature.
VALUATIONS AND RECOMMENDATION
At the CMP of Rs76, HDOL trades at a P/E of 6.9x & EV/EBIDTA of 4.7x its FY10E earnings. We are of the opinion that its current valuations are fair despite the considerable growth shown by the company in the past. We believe HDOL’s capability across successful execution of bigger & more complex projects, requiring prudent working capital management, still remains to be seen. Hence, we value the company at Rs88 (8x FY10E EPS) & maintain our ‘HOLD’ recommendation on the stock.
To see full report: HINDUSTAN DORR OLIVER LTD.
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четверг, 4 июня 2009 г.
среда, 3 июня 2009 г.
>IVRCL INFRASTRUCTURES & PROJECTS LIMITED (PINC RESEARCH)
IVRCL Infrastructures & Projects Ltd’s (IVRCL) Q4FY09 results were ahead of our expectations. Its revenues grew 23.1% YoY to ~Rs16.3bn backed by robust execution across water supply & environmental segment. OPM for the period dipped by 178bps YoY to 8.7% owing to higher masonry & labour expenses at 24.5% of net sales. Fuelled by other income of Rs87mn, net profits rose marginally by 9% YoY to Rs799mn.
■ Fresh order inflows at Rs9.3bn: IVRCL bagged new orders worth Rs9.3bn in Q4FY09, taking the total order inflows in FY09 to Rs76.4bn. Further, the company has already bagged jobs amounting to ~Rs6.6bn in Q1FY10 till date & stands L1 for additional projects worth Rs8-10bn.
■ Strong Order book at ~Rs135bn: IVRCL maintains a healthy order backlog of 2.1x FY10E revenues. While water supply & environmental projects dominate a major chunk (68%) of this backlog, buildings & industrial structures (20%) form the second largest segment. Almost 98% of IVRCL’s order backlog emanates from Government sector.
Revise our FY10 estimates: IVRCL has registered an impressive 33.4% YoY growth in its revenues for FY09; though the same has been accompanied by a fall in its OPM (down ~124bps YoY). Going forward, with commencement of work on projects bagged in FY09 we expect the company to maintain its growth momentum. The margins too are expected to improve by 40-50bps on account of reduction in prices of key raw materials. Hence, we revise upwards our FY10 EPS estimate to Rs16.2 from the earlier Rs15.5.
VALUATIONS AND RECOMMENDATION
At the CMP of Rs329, IVRCL trades at a P/E of 20.3x & EV/EBIDTA of 10.8x its FY10E earnings. We are of the opinion that presently the stock is fairly valued in line with our SOTP valuation of Rs340/ share (Refer page3). Hence, we maintain our ‘HOLD’ recommendation on the stock.
To see full report: IVRCL
■ Fresh order inflows at Rs9.3bn: IVRCL bagged new orders worth Rs9.3bn in Q4FY09, taking the total order inflows in FY09 to Rs76.4bn. Further, the company has already bagged jobs amounting to ~Rs6.6bn in Q1FY10 till date & stands L1 for additional projects worth Rs8-10bn.
■ Strong Order book at ~Rs135bn: IVRCL maintains a healthy order backlog of 2.1x FY10E revenues. While water supply & environmental projects dominate a major chunk (68%) of this backlog, buildings & industrial structures (20%) form the second largest segment. Almost 98% of IVRCL’s order backlog emanates from Government sector.
Revise our FY10 estimates: IVRCL has registered an impressive 33.4% YoY growth in its revenues for FY09; though the same has been accompanied by a fall in its OPM (down ~124bps YoY). Going forward, with commencement of work on projects bagged in FY09 we expect the company to maintain its growth momentum. The margins too are expected to improve by 40-50bps on account of reduction in prices of key raw materials. Hence, we revise upwards our FY10 EPS estimate to Rs16.2 from the earlier Rs15.5.
VALUATIONS AND RECOMMENDATION
At the CMP of Rs329, IVRCL trades at a P/E of 20.3x & EV/EBIDTA of 10.8x its FY10E earnings. We are of the opinion that presently the stock is fairly valued in line with our SOTP valuation of Rs340/ share (Refer page3). Hence, we maintain our ‘HOLD’ recommendation on the stock.
To see full report: IVRCL
среда, 27 мая 2009 г.
>DEEPAK FERTILISERS & PETROCHEMICAL CORP. LTD. (PINC RESEARCH)
Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals Corporation Ltd. (DFPCL) posted a 1.2%YoY de-growth in sales to Rs3.3bn in Q4FY09 against our estimate of Rs3.2bn. OPM expanded by 152bps to 20.4% driven by fall in operating expenses. With higher other income (+155%) and lower effective tax rate, net profit grew by 26.5% to Rs396mn against our estimate of Rs258mn.
■ OPM expands on lower trading volume
Declined in traded goods by ~25% YoY to Rs0.9bn and decrease in cost of other expenses to net sales by 167bps led OPM to increase by 152bps to 20.4%.
■ Ishanya getting firm
Ishanya mall is making its mark in the interiors and exteriors in western Maharashtra. It registered over 1.3mn footfalls with conversion rate of ~35%.
■ Availability of gas to boost performance
DFPCL has begun purchase of consignments of LNG through GAIL pipeline (Dahej-Uran). Once regular gas supply starts from KG basin, company will be able to increase its capacity utilisation and eventualy profitability will improve.
■ Projects / New initiatives
DFPCL augmented its technical Ammonium Nitrate capacity to 132k MT from 90k MT p.a. in FY09. It further plans to raise its capacity of Ammonium Nitrate by 300k MT p.a.at Taloja plant with a capex of Rs6bn, which is expected by Oct’10. Commissioning of Bentonite Sulfur plant (25k MT p.a.) at Taloja and Ammonia tank (15k MT) at JNPT is over and now company should be able to limit its exposure to highly volatile ammonia prices. Nitric acid facility with 450 MT p.d. should be commissioned by H1FY10 which will make DFPCL among the largest producer of Nitric acid in Asia.
VALUATIONS AND RECOMMENDATION
At the CMP of Rs86, DFPCL is trading at a P/E of 6.2x and EV/ EBITDA of 3.5x FY10E. Favourable fertiliser policy & expected increase in availability of gas post RIL KG basin development, augurs well for DFPCL. We maintain our ‘BUY’ recommendation with a target price of Rs98, which implies a P/E of 7x FY10 earnings that is less than 5years historical median P/E of 7.4x.
To see full report: DEEPAK FERTILISERS & PETROCHEMICAL CORP. LTD.
■ OPM expands on lower trading volume
Declined in traded goods by ~25% YoY to Rs0.9bn and decrease in cost of other expenses to net sales by 167bps led OPM to increase by 152bps to 20.4%.
■ Ishanya getting firm
Ishanya mall is making its mark in the interiors and exteriors in western Maharashtra. It registered over 1.3mn footfalls with conversion rate of ~35%.
■ Availability of gas to boost performance
DFPCL has begun purchase of consignments of LNG through GAIL pipeline (Dahej-Uran). Once regular gas supply starts from KG basin, company will be able to increase its capacity utilisation and eventualy profitability will improve.
■ Projects / New initiatives
DFPCL augmented its technical Ammonium Nitrate capacity to 132k MT from 90k MT p.a. in FY09. It further plans to raise its capacity of Ammonium Nitrate by 300k MT p.a.at Taloja plant with a capex of Rs6bn, which is expected by Oct’10. Commissioning of Bentonite Sulfur plant (25k MT p.a.) at Taloja and Ammonia tank (15k MT) at JNPT is over and now company should be able to limit its exposure to highly volatile ammonia prices. Nitric acid facility with 450 MT p.d. should be commissioned by H1FY10 which will make DFPCL among the largest producer of Nitric acid in Asia.
VALUATIONS AND RECOMMENDATION
At the CMP of Rs86, DFPCL is trading at a P/E of 6.2x and EV/ EBITDA of 3.5x FY10E. Favourable fertiliser policy & expected increase in availability of gas post RIL KG basin development, augurs well for DFPCL. We maintain our ‘BUY’ recommendation with a target price of Rs98, which implies a P/E of 7x FY10 earnings that is less than 5years historical median P/E of 7.4x.
To see full report: DEEPAK FERTILISERS & PETROCHEMICAL CORP. LTD.
суббота, 16 мая 2009 г.
>GREAT EASTERN SHIPPING CO. LTD. (PINC RESEARCH)
G E Shipping's (GES) stand-alone results for Q4FY09 were below expectations due to an impairment loss of Rs700mn. Net sales declined by 24% to Rs5.6bn on back of lower revenue
days. OPM contracted 550bps YoY to 47.3% while expanding by 400bps sequentially. Adj. net profits dipped 67% to Rs1.1bn.
Reduced tonnage and rates depress revenues
Revenue days for the quarter declined by 18% on account of reduced tonnage. This coupled with depressed dayrates led to fall in revenues which was buffered to some extent by a stronger dollar.
Lower TCY & higher maintenance costs impact OPM
TCY declined across all asset classes while dry docking expenses increased 56%. Also, direct operating costs remained constant. This led to operating profits falling by 32% to Rs2.7bn & OPM contracting by 550bps to 47.3%.
Lower other income & impairment loss impact net profits
Other income contracted by 23% and GES took a Rs700mn impairment loss on one of its bulk carrier resulting in net profits declining by 67% to Rs1.1bn.
Fleet Details & Capex:
GES currently owns & operates 39 ships comprising 31 tankers (12 crude tankers, 18 product tankers, 1 LPG carrier) and 8 bulk carriers with an avg age of 10.3 yrs aggregating 2.9mnDWT. It also operates 5 in-chartered vessels. The offshore division GIL owns 5 PSVs & 5 AHTSVs and operates 3 in-chartered assets. 2 bulk carriers and 1 product tankers should leave the fleet by Q1FY10 as they have already been sold off. Further capex entails delivery of 26 assets with an outlay of Rs1.3bn over the next 3 years.
VALUATIONS AND RECOMMENDATION
Based on SOTP valuations incorporating the decline in tanker asset prices, we believe the stock is fairly valued and has achieved our target price. Accordingly we downgrade our recommendation to ‘HOLD’ with a revised target price of Rs270.
FY09 Performance
On a consolidated basis, revenues increased by 22% to Rs3.8bn mainly on account of a weak rupee, higher TCY and increased spot market exposure. Crude tankers TCY rose 37% while dry bulk TCY rose 4%. Rupee depreciation impacted the revenues by ~10%. Operating profits grew by only 14% as higher spot exposure led to margin deterioration. Better earnings in H1FY09 and increased offshore earnings help offset the sharp decline in TCY in the second half. Subsequently, OPM contracted by 280bps to 41%. GES accounted for a Rs700mn impairment loss on one of its bulk carriers which impacted the adj. net profits that grew by 9% to Rs14.2bn as against our estimates of Rs14.9bn. In FY09, GES took delivery of 2 product tankers, 2 AHTSVs, 2 PSVs & 1 Jack-Up Rig (In-chartered from Mercator Lines). During the same period, 3 product tankers, 5 bulk carriers and 1 gas carrier were sold off. Going forward, it has already inducted 1 product tanker and 1 AHTSV in Q1FY10. Further capex entails deliveries of 9 ships mainly in FY11& FY12 and 17 offshore assets by FY11 (10 in FY10 & 7 in FY11). The total outlay for aforesaid would be ~USD1.3bn (Shipping ~USD550mn & Offshore ~730mn).
To see full report: GE SHIPPING
days. OPM contracted 550bps YoY to 47.3% while expanding by 400bps sequentially. Adj. net profits dipped 67% to Rs1.1bn.
Reduced tonnage and rates depress revenues
Revenue days for the quarter declined by 18% on account of reduced tonnage. This coupled with depressed dayrates led to fall in revenues which was buffered to some extent by a stronger dollar.
Lower TCY & higher maintenance costs impact OPM
TCY declined across all asset classes while dry docking expenses increased 56%. Also, direct operating costs remained constant. This led to operating profits falling by 32% to Rs2.7bn & OPM contracting by 550bps to 47.3%.
Lower other income & impairment loss impact net profits
Other income contracted by 23% and GES took a Rs700mn impairment loss on one of its bulk carrier resulting in net profits declining by 67% to Rs1.1bn.
Fleet Details & Capex:
GES currently owns & operates 39 ships comprising 31 tankers (12 crude tankers, 18 product tankers, 1 LPG carrier) and 8 bulk carriers with an avg age of 10.3 yrs aggregating 2.9mnDWT. It also operates 5 in-chartered vessels. The offshore division GIL owns 5 PSVs & 5 AHTSVs and operates 3 in-chartered assets. 2 bulk carriers and 1 product tankers should leave the fleet by Q1FY10 as they have already been sold off. Further capex entails delivery of 26 assets with an outlay of Rs1.3bn over the next 3 years.
VALUATIONS AND RECOMMENDATION
Based on SOTP valuations incorporating the decline in tanker asset prices, we believe the stock is fairly valued and has achieved our target price. Accordingly we downgrade our recommendation to ‘HOLD’ with a revised target price of Rs270.
FY09 Performance
On a consolidated basis, revenues increased by 22% to Rs3.8bn mainly on account of a weak rupee, higher TCY and increased spot market exposure. Crude tankers TCY rose 37% while dry bulk TCY rose 4%. Rupee depreciation impacted the revenues by ~10%. Operating profits grew by only 14% as higher spot exposure led to margin deterioration. Better earnings in H1FY09 and increased offshore earnings help offset the sharp decline in TCY in the second half. Subsequently, OPM contracted by 280bps to 41%. GES accounted for a Rs700mn impairment loss on one of its bulk carriers which impacted the adj. net profits that grew by 9% to Rs14.2bn as against our estimates of Rs14.9bn. In FY09, GES took delivery of 2 product tankers, 2 AHTSVs, 2 PSVs & 1 Jack-Up Rig (In-chartered from Mercator Lines). During the same period, 3 product tankers, 5 bulk carriers and 1 gas carrier were sold off. Going forward, it has already inducted 1 product tanker and 1 AHTSV in Q1FY10. Further capex entails deliveries of 9 ships mainly in FY11& FY12 and 17 offshore assets by FY11 (10 in FY10 & 7 in FY11). The total outlay for aforesaid would be ~USD1.3bn (Shipping ~USD550mn & Offshore ~730mn).
To see full report: GE SHIPPING
суббота, 11 апреля 2009 г.
>Petronet LNG (PINC RESEARCH)
Petronet LNG Ltd. (PLL) accounts for 23% of natural gas supply of India and boasts of a Sovereign parentage of GAIL, IOCL, ONGC and BPCL. Considered as an Indian pioneer in import distribution, it regasifies ~6.5 mn mtpa of imported LNG from its facility in Dahej, Gujarat and is a major supplier to GAIL’s HVJ gas pipeline.
Unique business model
PLL’s business model of back to back gas sale purchase agreements insulates the company from sourcing, offtake and exchange rate risks. With the virtue of a short working capital cycle, the company does not require any working capital funding for its growth.
Earnings growth visibility
PLL has growth visibility through its long term sale-purchase agreements and matching offtake agreements with GAIL, IOCL and BPCL, thereby ensuring supply and a ready customer base, which should enable it to register an earnings growth at a CAGR of 14% over next 3 years. As energy consumption is not expected to ebb in the foreseeable time, PLL offers high safety of earnings in these challenging times.
Capacity expansion
It would double its Dahej capacity in Apr’09 to 10 mn mtpa and another 5 mn mtpa terminal, which is under construction in Kochi, should be on stream by H2FY12.
RISKS
* Invocation of force majeure clause by the LNG supplier might result in lower volumes sold by PLL.
* Even though the capacity expansion at Dahej has been completed, PLL has not yet fully tied up with long term supply contracts for the new capacity. An unforeseen spot purchase might impact the profitability.
VALUATIONS
The capacity expansions at Dahej should enable PLL volume growth by 13% in FY10 to 7.4 mn mt and 24% in FY11 to 9.2 mn mt garnering scale in earnings. Hence we initiate coverage on the stock with a ‘BUY’ recommendation and a price target of Rs66 on a 24 month investment perspective.
To see full report: PETRONET LNG
Unique business model
PLL’s business model of back to back gas sale purchase agreements insulates the company from sourcing, offtake and exchange rate risks. With the virtue of a short working capital cycle, the company does not require any working capital funding for its growth.
Earnings growth visibility
PLL has growth visibility through its long term sale-purchase agreements and matching offtake agreements with GAIL, IOCL and BPCL, thereby ensuring supply and a ready customer base, which should enable it to register an earnings growth at a CAGR of 14% over next 3 years. As energy consumption is not expected to ebb in the foreseeable time, PLL offers high safety of earnings in these challenging times.
Capacity expansion
It would double its Dahej capacity in Apr’09 to 10 mn mtpa and another 5 mn mtpa terminal, which is under construction in Kochi, should be on stream by H2FY12.
RISKS
* Invocation of force majeure clause by the LNG supplier might result in lower volumes sold by PLL.
* Even though the capacity expansion at Dahej has been completed, PLL has not yet fully tied up with long term supply contracts for the new capacity. An unforeseen spot purchase might impact the profitability.
VALUATIONS
The capacity expansions at Dahej should enable PLL volume growth by 13% in FY10 to 7.4 mn mt and 24% in FY11 to 9.2 mn mt garnering scale in earnings. Hence we initiate coverage on the stock with a ‘BUY’ recommendation and a price target of Rs66 on a 24 month investment perspective.
To see full report: PETRONET LNG
>Automobile Sector (PINC RESEARCH)
Indian automobile sector reported an improved performance during the month of Mar’09. On a sequential basis, there has been a marked up-tick in the primary dispatches by the major auto players. Passenger cars and 2-wheelers were two segments which have done well. While domestic 2-wheelers sales improved, exports were weak with decline in volumes. Domestic passenger cars sales were boosted by the discounts and offers on the products. Exports were healthy with Maruti and Hyundai growing their penetration in the European market. Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles (MHCV) segment continues to be in a declining phase though there is sharp improvement sequentially.
* 2-wheelers: Overall industry performance has been good though Bajaj Auto continues to post a decline in its monthly sales. Honda Motorcycles & Scooters India (HMSI) and Yamaha have shown a strong growth in the motorcycle segment.
* Passenger Vehicles: Passenger cars and Utility vehicles reported strong performance. Utility vehicles has got a big boost due to National Elections. Hyundai reported a decline in domestic sales which is largely a factor of big base. Maruti Suzuki reported their best ever monthly sales.
* Commercial Vehicles: MHCV is on a gradual recovery phase for the last two months. However, we believe that this segment will be adversely impacted by elections and monsoons thereafter. So, we do not expect the segment to stabilise before Sep’09. Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV) segment has done well and we believe that this segment is in a secular growth phase due to large requirement for last mile connectivity.
To see full report: AUTOMOBILE SECTOR
понедельник, 6 апреля 2009 г.
>IT Services (PINC RESEARCH)
Introduction
We initiate coverage on Indian IT services sector with a Negative view. We believe that the macro-economic factors will continue to impede Indian IT Services industry. The industry is experiencing multiple headwinds along with the slowdown that will play out in terms of
среда, 1 апреля 2009 г.
>Offshore Oilfield Services (PINC RESEARCH)
Drilling for value....
Offshore Oilfield Services form an important segment of the oilfield value chain. It includes all activities involved in upstream exploration of hydrocarbons in the offshore environment including drilling, construction and support activities. While offshore capex has peaked after five years of scorching growth, we believe there are pockets of value for domestic players to continue the growth momentum, albeit at a slower pace.
■ Hydrocarbon capex has peaked, but will not subside: We believe that capex in this space peaked in 2008 after 5 years of scorching growth and upstream players will go slow on incremental capex. However, we also believe that oil exploration should continue at a slower pace, given the fact that oil is a perishable commodity and it has faced numerous feast and famine situations in the past.
■ Domestic demand to remain robust: With ONGC being a major upstream player in the domestic market with a clear mandate of ensuring energy security, the demand aspect of exploration is ensured for players with a strong domestic presence.
■ Shallow water players to emerge: Contrary to popular perception, we believe that shallow water players should experience renewed demand despite incremental supply coming in, mainly because with softening oil prices, deep water exploration is fast becoming prohibitive.
■ Niches waiting to be exploited: With the scorching pace of oil capex in the last five years slackening, there is room to breathe for upstream players and focus on revamping an ageing infrastructure. This will give business to players in offshore construction and maintenance space.
To see full report: OFFSHORE OILFIELD SERVICES
Offshore Oilfield Services form an important segment of the oilfield value chain. It includes all activities involved in upstream exploration of hydrocarbons in the offshore environment including drilling, construction and support activities. While offshore capex has peaked after five years of scorching growth, we believe there are pockets of value for domestic players to continue the growth momentum, albeit at a slower pace.
■ Hydrocarbon capex has peaked, but will not subside: We believe that capex in this space peaked in 2008 after 5 years of scorching growth and upstream players will go slow on incremental capex. However, we also believe that oil exploration should continue at a slower pace, given the fact that oil is a perishable commodity and it has faced numerous feast and famine situations in the past.
■ Domestic demand to remain robust: With ONGC being a major upstream player in the domestic market with a clear mandate of ensuring energy security, the demand aspect of exploration is ensured for players with a strong domestic presence.
■ Shallow water players to emerge: Contrary to popular perception, we believe that shallow water players should experience renewed demand despite incremental supply coming in, mainly because with softening oil prices, deep water exploration is fast becoming prohibitive.
■ Niches waiting to be exploited: With the scorching pace of oil capex in the last five years slackening, there is room to breathe for upstream players and focus on revamping an ageing infrastructure. This will give business to players in offshore construction and maintenance space.
To see full report: OFFSHORE OILFIELD SERVICES
воскресенье, 22 марта 2009 г.
>Auto Sector 2 wheeler (PINC RESEARCH)
Indian 2-wheelers industry after showing impressive performance over 1992-2007 is facing a tough environment for the last two years. We believe that this phase is temporary and 2-wheelers will again move into growth phase. Given their operational efficiency, ease in maneuvering city traffic and low cost of ownership, 2- wheelers continue to be the preferred mode for daily commuting. We expect domestic 2-wheelers market to stabilise by FY17 with penetration levels of 135 vehicles per thousand population. We expect entry of low cost cars to have some impact on 2-wheelers demand especially in scooters segments.
● Base correction over the last two years: Over the last two years, the 2-wheelers industry has seen a base correction especially in the entry level segment. This should provide a platform for the sustainable growth in future.
● Low dependence on financing: During FY02-07, increasing penetration of financing led to strong growth for the industry. However with high default rates, financing flow has been restricted over the last two years. This augurs well for the industry and now onwards, we can expect growth in the industry on its own merits rather than finance stimulation. Return of financing will provide upside to our volume estimates for the industry.
● Global financial crisis to impact exports : 2-wheelers exports from India are expected to be adversely impacted by global financial crisis. We forecast exports growth to slowdown to single digits in FY10 & post that we expect a growth of 15%.
● Rationality in players’ behaviour: Over the past one year, we have observed rationality in players’ behaviour, which has led to profitability improvement despite increase in raw material cost. We expect that this trend to continue and players will refrain from indulging in price war.
To see full report: AUTO SECTOR
● Base correction over the last two years: Over the last two years, the 2-wheelers industry has seen a base correction especially in the entry level segment. This should provide a platform for the sustainable growth in future.
● Low dependence on financing: During FY02-07, increasing penetration of financing led to strong growth for the industry. However with high default rates, financing flow has been restricted over the last two years. This augurs well for the industry and now onwards, we can expect growth in the industry on its own merits rather than finance stimulation. Return of financing will provide upside to our volume estimates for the industry.
● Global financial crisis to impact exports : 2-wheelers exports from India are expected to be adversely impacted by global financial crisis. We forecast exports growth to slowdown to single digits in FY10 & post that we expect a growth of 15%.
● Rationality in players’ behaviour: Over the past one year, we have observed rationality in players’ behaviour, which has led to profitability improvement despite increase in raw material cost. We expect that this trend to continue and players will refrain from indulging in price war.
To see full report: AUTO SECTOR
воскресенье, 25 января 2009 г.
воскресенье, 30 ноября 2008 г.
>TRIVENI ENGINEERING(PINC RESEARCH)
Triveni Engineering and Industries Ltd. (TEIL) reported a YoY
growth of 41% in net sales to Rs4.3bn for Q4FY08, led by
healthy performance across its divisions. The company changed
the accounting policy relating to recognition of carbon credit
income, thus impacting profits to the extent of Rs90mn. OPM
expanded by 330bps to 18.6%, led by turnaround of sugar
operations coupled with improved margins in distillery division.
Net profits surged by 5.4x to Rs270mn.
! Sugar sales higher by 35%
Sugar despatches rose 35% to 143.8k mt whereas realisations improved
by 21% to Rs16.2k/mt. As on Sep’08, TEIL is carrying ~256k mt of
sugar inventory against 186.5k mt as on Sep’07. This should help the
company capitalise on firm sugar prices.
! Margins expand by 330bps to 18.6%
OPM expanded 330 bps to 18.6% on back of turnaround in sugar division
and improved contribution from distillery segments. Accordingly,
operating profits surged 71% to Rs796mn.
! SAP for SS 08-09 at Rs140/quintal
In Oct’08, UP government announced SAP of Rs140/quintal for
SS 08-09 against Rs125/quintal in SS 07-08 and Rs110/quintal paid by
sugar mills as per the Supreme Court order. The UPSMA has contested
the SAP announcement in the Allahabad High Court questioning the
methodology in arriving at the SAP.
To read full report TRIVENI ENGINEERING(PINC RESEARCH)
growth of 41% in net sales to Rs4.3bn for Q4FY08, led by
healthy performance across its divisions. The company changed
the accounting policy relating to recognition of carbon credit
income, thus impacting profits to the extent of Rs90mn. OPM
expanded by 330bps to 18.6%, led by turnaround of sugar
operations coupled with improved margins in distillery division.
Net profits surged by 5.4x to Rs270mn.
! Sugar sales higher by 35%
Sugar despatches rose 35% to 143.8k mt whereas realisations improved
by 21% to Rs16.2k/mt. As on Sep’08, TEIL is carrying ~256k mt of
sugar inventory against 186.5k mt as on Sep’07. This should help the
company capitalise on firm sugar prices.
! Margins expand by 330bps to 18.6%
OPM expanded 330 bps to 18.6% on back of turnaround in sugar division
and improved contribution from distillery segments. Accordingly,
operating profits surged 71% to Rs796mn.
! SAP for SS 08-09 at Rs140/quintal
In Oct’08, UP government announced SAP of Rs140/quintal for
SS 08-09 against Rs125/quintal in SS 07-08 and Rs110/quintal paid by
sugar mills as per the Supreme Court order. The UPSMA has contested
the SAP announcement in the Allahabad High Court questioning the
methodology in arriving at the SAP.
To read full report TRIVENI ENGINEERING(PINC RESEARCH)
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