понедельник, 2 февраля 2009 г.

>Daily Technical Report (MARWADI FINANCIAL)

Wall street perform mix, Asian market gain as a Australia, Japan steps up stimulus plan. On domestic

market is concern the New FM meet the bankers for 100-200Bps rate cut so that is the good for the financial

and banking counters. From that effects more liquidity in the system, secondary the interest also cut further

so the market immerge as a attractive investment avenue. So this all are the positive sign for the Indian

markets. For shorter period of time global effects and domestic key policy rate changes take the direction od

the markets.

On technical note market looks marginal positive opening and after positive opening it will take volatile

mode with positive bias. So in morning session we recommend to wait for lower levels buying opportunity

and after conformation of the trend make a fresh position with long view. In good fundamental counters

looks good buying interest so keep watch on that counters.



To see full report: Technical Report 3-02-2009

>India Computer Services (MERRILL LYNCH)



2H08 like 1H01, only maybe worse

# Deteriorating environment in 2H08; Indian vendors gain share.

Global IT and BPO outsourcing consultant TPI had its 4Q call on Tuesday.

2HCY08 was significantly weak on the back of few mega deals. Clients focused

on near-term profitability with propensity for short-term / small ticket deals. Market

share gains achieved by Indian vendors during 2008. Our proprietary CIO Survey

(carried out in Dec. by our US software team) also, not surprisingly, shows the

lowest IT budget growth expectation in the last two years, with IT budget expected

to decline 1.7%. Typically the IT budget growth expectations start optimistic and

deteriorate as the year progresses.





# 2008 showed growth, but dismal 2H08

Total Contract Value (TCV) for 2008 increased 5.6% to $89.4 bil. Impact of macro

turmoil in H2CY08 was clearly visible with TCV declining 22.1% to $39.1 bil in H2

vs $50.3 bil in H1. Both Q3 & Q4 were soft in terms of new contracts.



To see full report: ICS

>Why investors are rushing to commodities (RELIGARE)

2008 was a memorable year for commodities globally and commodity futures in particular in India. A quick review of the year gone by shows that the demand slowdown is firmly in place and the prices of key commodities are significantly down compared to a year ago.

Several commodities including crude oil, gold, aluminum, copper, soyabean, pepper and a host of others touched their all-time highs only to slide swiftly to then unimaginably low levels. The reason was clearly that prices rose so high so fast that demand was affected.

In many ways, this was a text-book case for pricing. High prices gave short-term profits to producers and traders but it was too much too soon. Consumers simply decided to stop buying and prices crashed. As we have seen umpteen times in recorded financial history, a downward spiral began with low prices chasing low demand.

Crude oil wiped out gains of five years within just five months and the concurrent fall in prices of other commodities has underlined the primacy of crude oil in setting prices across segments. Therefore the fundamental learning from the year has been that the commodity price edifice is built on crude oil prices and therefore it is very important that this key energy source is diligently tracked.

To see full report:Commodities

воскресенье, 1 февраля 2009 г.

>Market Preview (MARWADI FINANCIAL)

Daily Market Preview



# The sharp intra-day recovery on Friday despite negative global cues indicates

a positive attitude to buying equities that is likely to develop on the back of

improving macroeconomics. Q3FY09 results while being poor in comparison

to FY08 did not signal any severe corporate distress, as expected.



# We therefore believe there could be some merit in small buying for the near

term as bear market rally could continue upto 3000 levels. We could see some

action in reality stocks as SBI announce one of the steepest rate cut in recent

times.



To see full report: Market Preview 2-02-2009





>Daily F&O REPORT (MARWADI FINANCIAL)

To see full report: F&O 2-02-2009

>Hindustan Unilever Ltd. (ANAGRAM)

HIGHLIGHTS



  • HUL's numbers for the quarter ending December 2008 were in line with our expectations. The company reported a top line growth of 16.8% YoY and a bottom line growth of 11.1 YoY.
  • Despite of the receding input costs the margins and did not improve significantly. The full benefit of these falling raw material prices will reflect from the next quarter.
  • The Soap & Detergent segment grew by 25%, Personal products 12%, Beverages and Processed food by 24% and 19%, Ice creams 17%. On the other hand the Export segment and other products segment, which includes its water purifier business, saw a negative growth of 22.5% and 21%.

To see full report: HUL

>Currency Domestic Highlights (ANAGRAM)

WEEKLY DEVELOPMENTS



  • 27 Jan, RBI its quarterly review kept all prime rates untouched. Currently, Repo stood at 5.5 percent, Reverse Repo rate at 4.0 percent, while CRR at 5.) percent.
  • India's growth forecast is trimmed from October's 7.5-8.0 percent to 7.0 percent or less in 2008-09 which is slowest in six years.
  • Friday, India sold 40 billion rupees of new 10-year federal bonds via yield-based auction and 30 billion rupees each of 7.56 percent 2014 bonds and 6.83 percent 2039 bonds via a multiple price auction method.
  • According to the Central bank the federal government's fiscal deficit for 2008/09 was set to balloon to at least 5.9 percent of gross domestic product from an earlier estimated 2.5 percent, possible bringing the total federal and state shortfall to 8.5 percent.
  • The inflation based on Wholesale Price Index for week ended 17 January 2009 was seen at 5.64%, slightly higher than 5.60% noted previous week.

To see full report: Currency Highlights